Economists are questioning whether the traditional "look through" strategy for inflation—waiting to see if price shocks spill into the broader economy—remains viable. The core tension is that this wait-and-see approach, which worked during the relatively stable 1990s and early 2000s, may be failing in an era defined by frequent geopolitical, energy, and natural-resource shocks.

The shift toward more frequent resource and geopolitical shocks effectively breaks the old playbook of ignoring short-term volatility. Policymakers now face the difficult task of developing a more responsive, real-time measurement of persistent inflation that doesn't rely on inadequate consumer surveys or outdated historical assumptions.